The college football world was wishing for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matches underwhelmed, supplying a lot of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 versus the spread, including three fairly non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public do not seem to believe so. At least in two cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a specifically popular pick with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to overall dollars as of Monday afternoon.
"All the cash is can be found in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
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The interest for the Longhorns reaches the futures market also. Keep in mind that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the biggest underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most love from sharp bettors. The Athletic spoke to a number of bookies who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to push the line to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "very reputable player."
Although highly regarded cash has been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public wagerers are overdoing Texas.
"We would enjoy to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.
While the Texas video game will be huge for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We talked with several bookmakers to break down where the wagering action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
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This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at most sportsbooks and has approached slightly to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at many sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however just 42% of the money at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in terms of total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I wouldn't be shocked if this line creeps up a bit more before kickoff, however I presently invite any Boise State money."
Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd opportunity it desired. Are the Buckeyes all set for revenge?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most surprising to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet dog.
So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke to before the CFP first round had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its win over Tennessee also formed his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending on the sportsbook) in this game before highly regarded cash pushed it to the existing line of -2.5. A somewhat higher majority of wagers at several sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the cash has actually can be found in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some reputable cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable stated. "It's good two-way action at that number today. The overall has increased three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the greatest relocation of any of the totals. Money has all been on the over so far.
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Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp bettors, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and immediately our Ohio gamblers believed we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
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He did note, though, that the book had actually seen considerable buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
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The favorite flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What triggered the line flip? Simply put, the sports betting action.
Although Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been changed by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Being Available In On Texas'
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